Wednesday 19 September 2012

NFL Picks: Week III

Will we see another upset this season as big as the Cardinals getting over the Patriots? Probably not. The third week of the NFL season looks a lot more straight forward than the second week, with it becoming easier to pick winners as we now know what to expect from this years rosters.

Last week I got 9/16 for my picks, with my upset pick of the Rams over the RGIII Redskins coming off. I'm really surprised at how slow the Saints have started the season. Surely they would have been a certainty to beat either the Redskins or the Panthers. Baltimore all of a sudden look to have a temperamental offence, not necessarily capable of putting up 20+ points every week.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

This game is no certainty. Eli Manning again added to his reputation as a fourth quarter magician in his teams come from behind win against the Buccaneers. In truth the Giants should never of allowed themselves to fall behind to the Buc's so late in the game. Carolina are coming off a solid win against the Saints and should have already gotten over their week one humiliation at the hands of the Buccaneers. The game will be won or lost at the defensive line, with the Giants looking to nullify Newton's running game. If the Giants can get Cameron Newton stuck in the pocket, Carolina's offence will revert to their week one version and fall apart. Carolina aren't looking to win this game on their defence.

New York by 6

St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears

After their loss to the Packers, you'd think the focus of this game should be about what to expect from Jay Cutler. Cutler was terrible against the Packers and doesn't look to be capable of carrying the Bears to Superbowl success this season. With the loss of Forte for a month, Chicago will need to rely on Cutler to come away with a win. the Chicago defence is as solid as ever and should rattle Sam Bradford and slow down Steven Jackson. The game will be close, but I don't see St Louis as being capable of getting the W at Soldier Field.

Chicago by 8

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

After Buffalo's win over the Chiefs, they should be near certain favourites to get up over the Browns. Cleveland should play better than they have in their previous two games, taking on the Eagles and Begnals, and will challenge Buffalo. C.J Spiller has been in great form for the Bills, averaging 10.1 yards a carry and having four runs for over 20 yards. The Bills running game should do enough to secure the Bills second win for the season.

Buffalo by 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

After Dallas's loss to the Seahawks, I don't know what to expect. Romo played pretty darn hard against the Seahawks but got no support from his recievers or offensive line. If either one of these lifts their game, the Cowboys should be a lock to beat the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay have been much improved this season, allowing only 104 rushing yards in their two games so far this season. Look for a big game from Mason Foster who was a tackling machine for the Buc's against the Giants.

Dallas by 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indinapolis Colts

Andrew Luck got his first win in his NFL career last week against the Vikings. He should be able to get the win here, with the Jaguars not likely to get a win relying so heavily on Maurice Jones-Drew. The fact that Maurice Jones-Drew has the Jaguars second most receptions (6) demonstrates how badly the Jaguars are struggling in the air. Blaine Gabbert has got next to nothing out of first-round draft pick justin Blackmon, accumulating only 24 yards off three receptions in two games. Blackmon is a long way from being the Jaguars primary reciever and the Jaguars are a unlikely to have a serious chance at getting a win until they take on the Raiders in week seven.

Indianapolis by 20

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

I reckon the Dolphins will get up here. Reggie Bush had a great game against the Raiders, and a strong game against the Texans, averaging 6 yards a carry for the season. Still don't know what to make about Mark Sanchez but wouldn't be surprised if he's pulled out of the game if he throws two interceptions and the Jets are down by more than 10 heading into the fourth quarter. The game will ultimately come down to how many turnovers Tannehill concedes. If the Jets apply enough pressure on defence, the win is theirs for the taking. I do think the Dolphins will be in better shape mentally after beating Oakland and will get the win at home.

Miami by 3

San Francisco at Minnesota Vikings

I'm not going to waste time writing anything about this. The Vikings may be 1-1 for the season, but one of their wins came in overtime against the Jaguars. Are a team who just beat the Jaguars, but lose to the Colts (who don't have a functioning offensive line) really going to beat a team who get eight point wins against Green Bay and Detroit? I think not.

San Francisco by 20+

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

These two teams have a combined record of 0-4 for the season so far. The Chiefs lost their games against the Bills and the Falcons, without looking likely to get the win in either of the two games. The Saints have lost their games playing the Redskins and Panthers. As good as the Saints offence has been, their defence has been letting them down, conceding a total of 372 yards on the ground. Drew Brees has also thrown four interceptions that have stifled the Saints offence. The Saints shouldn't be worried though. Unless the Chiefs can lay a solid platform on the ground, and they certainly have the personnel to do it. Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles are both capable of breaking a game open and you wouldn't bet against either one of them putting together a dominant game in the near future. I just don't see this happening at the Dome, where Brees will be happy to throw the ball around.

New Orleans by 10

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

Detroit are definately going to win. The Titans have been terrible, with Chris Johnson rushing for a total of 21 yards on 19 attempts (1.1 yards per carry). Jake Locker is the teams leading rusher on 32 yards! Detroit will get their second win of the season with ease.

Detroit by 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins

This should be a great game. Both teams are 1-1 so far, with both Andy Dalton and Robert Griffin III having thrown three touchdowns across their two games. The Redskins should prevail looking to make up for their loss to the Rams. Robert Griffin III has been averaging 60 yards a game rushing, which should continue agains the Bengals who have already struggled to limit their opponents running game. The Redskins will give away plenty of points but will get the win.

Washington by 10

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Both teams beat AFC heavyweights last round, both teams have also won their first two games. The difference is no one in their right mind really thought the Cardinals were going to get over the Patriots! Philadelphia just got over Cleveland in week one, and produced an upset in getting up against the Ravens, and should be able to get past the Cardinals. The reason behind the Cardinals win over the Patriots was their ability to take advantage of turnovers committed by the Patriots. The Eagles aren't exactly league leaders when it comes to limiting turnovers and should be wary about airing it out when in their own half. The Cardinals can definately win this. They need to get their ground game working, making it harder to defend the pass. The Eagles won't be expecting much out of the Cardinals running backs, with Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams rushing 39 times so far for only 80 yards. If Michael Vick can limit the turnovers, the Eagles will win this with ease.

Philadelphia by 15

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

This is another game that should prove entertaining. Atlanta had a great first quarter against the Broncos, continuously picking off Peyton Manning and securing the score after the turnover. Philip Rivers has thrown one interception in his first two games, and will be relied on by his team to get the win off his arm. The Chargers have struggled on the ground and are still trying to create a balance between Jackie Battle and Curtis Brinkley. Atlanta have rhythm. Matt Ryan is yet to concede a turnover and will feel confident airing out the ball against a Chargers defence that has managed a single interception in the season so far. San Diego have put together a strong running defence so far, but will need to do a whole lot more to get the win.

Atlanta by 10

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning will be looking to make up for his abysmal first quarter against the Falcons, and should attack the Texans with gusto. Much has been made of Peyton Manning's arm strength, and the Broncos are still sorting out their routes in accordance to the playing style of Manning. The passing attack that greets the Texans in Denver should be much improved and will challenge the Texans. Houston will look to their defence to slow down Denver, limiting their oponents to an average of 124 passing yards and 72 rushing yards a game. J.J Watt has been a beast in defence, accumulating three sacks and five pass deflections while also recovering a fumble. Manning has been sacked five times so far this year, and should expect to see that number rise over the course of this game.

Houston by 12

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

No way are the Raiders going to recover from their humiliation at the hands of the Dolphins to overcome the Steelers. The Steelers will get the win with ease.

Pittsburgh by 18

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

This game won't be flashy. It's a clash of two teams nursing severely bruised egos. The Ravens managed to turn a 31 point victory over their division rivals the Bengals into a loss to a team who beat the cleveland Browns by a single point. The Patriots would be even more stunned. They lost to the Cardinals. THE CARDINALS!!! You'd think the Ravens would win this at home, but Joe Flacco looked average against the Eagles. Against the Eagles he completed just over 52% of his passes and averaged only five yards on each completion. Patriots did lose at home, and I don't see them returning to a winning record in Baltimore on a Sunday night.

Baltimore by 6

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

I don't buy into any hype about the Seahawks. Looking forward to seeing Clay Matthews welcome Russell Wilson to the NFL with a heavy sack. Seattle's only hope is Marshawn Lynch, but Green Bay's pass defence is too strong to allow Lynch to get loose.

Green Bay by 15


Last weeks tipping results: 9-7
Tipping results so far (started week two): 9-7

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